j9九游会

j9九游会社会学院系列讲座
2016年第29讲总第435讲

主题：天气转变对墨西哥-美国移民的影响

The Role of Climate Change on Mexico-US Migration

主讲人：Fernando Riosmena

科罗拉多大学博尔德分校生齿与地理学副教授

主持人：蒋耒文

亚洲生齿研究中心主任；；；；；美国国家大气研究中心科学家

主理单位：j9九游会亚洲生齿研究中心暨生齿研究所

合办单位：上海研究院都会社会治理研究中心

讲座时间：2016年6月22日星期三, 10:00-11:30am

讲座所在：j9九游会延伸校区北大楼308

讲座简介：

Climate change is expected to continue increasing average temperatures and rainfall variability, especially in semi-arid landscapes. Much of rural Mexico is heavily dependent on rainfall and indeed semi-arid, thus prone to drought, while also having a history of significant internal and international outmigration. Presenting a summary of results from several research projects, I reflect on how much Mexico-US migration is associated with drought while also considering rapid structural changes affecting the Mexican countryside over the past several decades. These results show that rainfall variability is a minor factor, but one which predicts international migration under specific conditions related to the intensity of environmental events, a household's/place's/region's history of migration, and land use/irrigation practices. I argue that including the confluence of climate and political and economic factors more explicitly can improve migration theories and related empirical work, and help better shape agrarian and social development policies (e.g., types of support in rural areas in the fact of future structural and climate change), and immigration policy (e.g., considering when climate does drive international movement).

天气转变导致气温及降雨的不稳固，，，，，尤其影响半干旱地区的地型地貌。。。。。墨西哥农村主要属于半干旱地区，，，，，生产和生涯严重依赖降水，，，，，保存大宗海内生齿流动和国际生齿迁出的历史。。。。。本讲座将总结多项相关研究的效果，，，，，剖析已往几十年墨西哥向美国的生齿迁徙与干旱的关系，，，，，以及墨西哥墟落快速结构变迁所施展的作用。。。。。研究效果显示，，，，，降水量的转变对墨西哥-美国的生齿迁徙直接影响很。。。。。，，，，更主要的是受到情形事务的强度、区域-墟落-家庭流动历史、以及土地使用和浇灌条件的影响。。。。。只有明确思量了天气、政治、经济因素的影响，，，，，才华刷新生齿迁徙理论和相关实证研究，，，，，并更好地制订农业和社会生长政策，，，，，为农村在未来结构和天气转变的条件下提供支持，，，，，并在制订生齿迁徙政策方面思量天气转变因素的影响。。。。。

主讲人简介：

Fernando Riosmena is Associate Professor in the Population Program and Geography Department at the University of Colorado at Boulder, where he is also faculty associate in the Center for Latin American Studies and holds a courtesy faculty appointment in Sociology. His research and scholarship look at the role of US policies and practices as well as social, economic, and environmental conditions in sending communities on the migration dynamics between Latin America and the United States. Riosmena has published this work in outlets such as International Migration Review, Global Environmental Change, and the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences.. He has also participated in advisory and consulting bodies for US and Mexican governments, including a group of the US Academy of Sciences studying the measurement and extent of undocumented migration.

Shanghai, P. R. China, 200444
联系人：徐芬芳、张羽
联系电话：021-66135205，，，，，021-66132080
电子邮件：xufenfang2008@163.com，，，，，sasaxp@shu.edu.cn
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j9九游会社会学院
School of Sociology and Political Science，，，，，Shanghai University